DFS NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – Playoffs Sunday 4/17/22

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Spike Guard / Shooting Guard

Kyle LowryKyle Lowry FD – $6,700 DK – $6,000
Opponent – ATL
Proj Pts FD – 34.54 DK – 36.09

It’s an interesting series in that, like Boston vs. Brooklyn, it feels like we’re getting a much better 1v8 than we usually think. That’s because the Hawks seem like a better version of a bottom feeder than we’re used to, and that’s right. They’re going to be tougher for Miami than they probably imagined working hard to get into the top seed. But with that comes the prospect of plenty of minutes from Heat starters and that should mean a ton of production from Lowry. Over the final nine games of the season, Lowry averaged 18 points, six rebounds, and three rebounds per game, but was able to increase the dime later in the season when the Heat became healthier. He comes too cheap at both venues and is likely to play a ton of minutes in a tight game.

Holiday JrueHoliday Jrue FD – $7,800 DK – $7,900
Opponent – CHI
Proj Pts FD – 42.84 DK – 43.33

Listen, I understand the Bucks are at full strength in what cuts into fantasy production for all of their big three. But they also get the best game against the Bulls, which should lead to at least two of them paying value on this list. Holiday showed a balanced line throughout the season with 18 points, seven assists and nearly five rebounds per game. You would think, in a tight game, that we are looking for a maximum of 30 in terms of minutes and that should be more than enough to hit the value at these prices. Again, I think stacking Bucks is mostly the game here, which means we’re going to need at least a few on this list.

Alex CarusoAlex Caruso FD – $4,200 DK – $4,200
Opponent – MIL
Proj Pts FD – 26.82 DK – 25.84

I get it’s weird going up against a guy in cash games who ran 22 minutes per game the last two regular season games and scored a total of 0 points in those games. But that’s exactly why we’re getting it here at a full discount. It’s likely that the Bulls, if they have a chance (and they don’t have many), will need a lot of disruption minutes out of Caruso. He’s able to subsist on fantastic production outside of just scoring, six rebounds and three assists per game over that span, and he’s expected to play plenty of minutes. On a slate it’s hard to find punts, he makes one.

strongly consider DeMar DeRozan (FD 8400 DK 8500) who is likely to play a ton of minutes as long as the Bulls can keep the game close.

small forward

Kris MiddletonKris Middleton FD – $7,100 DK – $8,100
Opponent – CHI
Proj Pts FD – 41.06 DK – 42.59

The Bucks have the best game on the slate and we could be in line to pile on the team’s big three. Middleton is tough considering he has to share the load with Giannis and Jrue, which means there might not be quite the use you’d want at these prices. But it comes at a cheaper price on FanDuel, which makes it harder from that perspective. Middleton has been locked in for virtually the same stats the past 3-4 years, averaging 20 points, 5.4 rebounds, 5.4 assists, and 1.5 blocks+steals per game.

Jae CrowderJae Crowder FD – $4,400 DK – $4,200
Opponent – NOPE
Proj Pts FD – 27.06 DK – 28.6

We’re going to have to find every way to save on this list if we’re going to have any hope of getting some of the most expensive superstars. Crowder is one way to do this. Is he the most dynamic fantasy contributor of the moment? Of course not. But he’s versatile on defense and can knock down all three points, which should translate to longer playoff minutes. His averages per 30 minutes are around 10 points and 5.5 rebounds with about two blocks + steals as well. If he’s able to maintain that (or maybe even a little more), then those prices are too low for the playoff roster.

Power forward/center

Giannis AntetokounmpoGiannis Antetokounmpo FD – $11,500 DK – $11,000
Opponent – CHI
Project points FD – 63.61 DNK – 65.4

Giannis really doesn’t need any explanation here considering the (many) years of production he’s put in place. At this point we’re only trying to figure out if we have enough money to save and not really if this guy is actually going to hit his number. This guy averaged 30 points, 11.6 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and three steals + blocks per game, which is another fantastically transformative season. Again, we’re only trying to figure out if we can afford it, not if it’s worth it. Considering the game against the Bulls having no effective way to slow him down, it’s likely going to be an easy game for Giannis and the rest of the Bucks.

Onyeka OkongwuOnyeka Okongwu FD – $5,800 DK – $5,100
Opponent – MIA
Proj Pts FD – 29.6 DNK – 30.11

With Clint Capela injured and John Collins still on the board, the Hawks could look to Okongwu for many minutes here. They’re now officially out of big bodies, which you desperately need against the Milwaukee Bucks. There is a good chance that Gorgui Dieng too. When Okongwu started this season, he averaged about 32 minutes per game with 11 points and eight rebounds. He didn’t come out of the box by any means, but he’s capable of holding in that role. The price spiked a bit on the news of Capela’s injury, but he’s still a bargain on DraftKings in particular.

Daniel TheisDaniel Theis FD – $4,100 DK – $4,900
Opponent – BKN
Proj Pts FD – 25.03 DK – 26.72

Theis will again give the start to Robert Williams while Time Lord is away. And those prices are actually still too low for the center given what he does in that role. In the short term, Theis played about 30 minutes per game and averaged 13 points and six rebounds. The Nets are struggling on the inside in some matchups, which means he could take advantage there. And the real story is the price which is under $5,000 on both sites. On slates like this, with increasingly tight playoff rotations, that’s what equates to a punt game in terms of savings. When it comes to completing the queues, it matters.

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