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Chris Paul FD – $8,100 DK – $7,800
Opponent – INDIANA
Proj Pts FD – 40.44 DK – 42.51
It’s an odd three-game slate here on Saturday with all three tilts having pretty wide gaps. We could therefore consider a risk of eruption at all levels. I still think Paul has a pretty high floor here, all things considered against a Pacers team that’s in the bottom third in terms of defensive effectiveness. Paul has doubled in three of the last five games with points and assists while adding a ton defensively as well. The Suns are -12.5 home favorites here against a battered Indiana team, so we could see CP3 get buzzed in fourth if things get out of hand. But that’s the case with almost every game here.
And for what it’s worth, Cameron Payne (FD 4100 DK 4600) makes for an interesting kind of cash hedge on a short slate. He plays enough minutes (for the most part) not to totally crush you in a regular game. And if it got out of control, he would probably run the 4th quarter too.
Yes Holiday Jrue (FD 7900 DK 7700) is in the starting range (finally) and not limited so I think we can take the risk on its price. The problem is that they are back to back here and he could rest. George Hill (FD 4600 DK 3400) would become moderately interesting in this scenario.
And we are not likely to know the status of Malcolm Brogdon (FD 6600 DK 7400) before queue locking. He comes very cheap on FanDuel in particular, despite being injured a ton. If he were to sit then Keifer Sykes (FD 4200 DK 3600) would do well on both sites.
Devin Booker FD – $9,200 DK – $8,900
Opponent – INDIANA
Proj Pts FD – 42.18 DK – 45.88
Booker has been amazing this season, especially over the past month. Over his last six games, he’s averaged 30.5 points per game while throwing rebounds and assists along the way. And the score arrives even if the shot was not very effective in the short term. He’s only 32% from beyond the arc in this streak, getting help in the goalscoring category by reaching the line more than usual. It all adds up to always rack up the points and he could do it again here against the Pacers. Suns guards offer a better chance of building a roster than, say, Giannis, only because they’re cheaper and you can pair them up.
Josh Giddey FD – $6,100 DK – $7,000
Opponent – KEY
Proj Pts FD – 30.55 DK – 33.86
One thing to note about Giddey here is that he’s mostly blowout proof in that when the Thunder get smoked, he mostly gets his run no matter what. Over the past two games, OKC has dropped around 20 points apiece and Giddey has played 33 minutes in both games. It’s actually a good sign for what we can expect here against Cleveland. In terms of waxed teams, which might be the theme here, Giddey’s production should be fine. He’s doubled in two of the last four games and over the past month he’s averaged 14 points, nine rebounds and seven assists. The line is so balanced that you also don’t rely on a single production piece to get you there on price.
Giannis Antetokounmpo FD – $11,400 DK – $12,100
Opponent – BAG
Proj Pts FD – 61.58 DNK – 64.7
On this slate court it is going to be a very difficult fade even with the backdrop behind the possible blowout. The Bucks are back-to-back, so there’s a chance we really have to keep an eye out if they plan on resting someone, although I think Holiday would be the first in that scenario. Either way, if Giannis plays, we get to the top tier of fantasy basketball. He’s had 30 or more real points in four of the last five games with double-digit rebounds in seven of the last 10. The price is in the stratosphere for a reason and it offers so much security. It’s better to take the risks at the lower end of the salary scale and try to adapt to Giannis than to go the other way.
Torrey Craig FD – $5,900 DK – $4,500
Opponent – OPS
Proj Pts FD – 22.3 DNK – 23.31
Even with Malcolm Brogdon and Caris LeVert potentially returning to action, I think we can play Craig here in cash on the shortlist. He’s started for Indiana the past two games and will likely be back here on Saturday. He shot poorly in the first but knocked it down against the Warriors in the overtime win on Thursday. Craig finished with 12 points and seven rebounds in 34 minutes and I think we can expect a similar run in this one. The DraftKings price is a bit more acceptable.
Goga Bitadze FD – $6,000 DK – $4,700
Opponent – OPS
Project Pts FD – 32.96 DK – 33.46
With Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner both on the shelf, Goga Bitadze drew the start of the final game and was on his way to major minutes before getting kicked out. He had 13 points, eight rebounds and five assists in that time and was overwhelming value. The price has really gone up here, game after game, which makes the decision a little closer. I still think he’s basically a lock on DraftKings because that salary hasn’t fixed enough. But FanDuel could be a problem. There’s a world where it erupts and it’s way out in number. But with so few options, I think we just have to take the risk.
Evan Mobley FD – $6,600 DK – $7,500
Opponent – OKAY
Proj Pts FD – 37.05 DK – 37.64
Evan Mobley has seen the price drop here in the short term and now he’s kind of a bargain on FanDuel in particular. This is mainly due to the fact that the rebounds have decreased over the past two weeks. Sharing the pitch more and more with Jarrett Allen will do it, but he’s not getting on the glass as much. That being said, he still takes double-digit shots per game and has averaged more than two blocks + steals over the past nine games. This helps keep the floor on the higher side, all things considered.
Bobby Portis FD – $6,300 DK – $6,700
Opponent – BAG
Project Pts FD – 35.96 DK – 38.57
Portis has maintained solid fantasy ground this season almost regardless of the Bucks’ personnel in any given game. It’s back-to-back for Milwaukee, but I’m not at all concerned about his run here. Rather, the team is opting to rest some of its other key players (Giannis, Jrue, Middleton) in an effort to save them in what could be a blowout against the Kings. I think that puts Portis in line for more production if they go that route. But if not, I’ll still be fine racing him here in cash based on performance.
Still need to consider JaVale McGee (FD 4400 DK 4400) although DeAndre Ayton’s last two starts have been less than ideal.
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